Learning exactly the wrong lesson

For several years now I have heard fellow scientists worry that the dialogue around open and reproducible science could be used against science – to discredit results that people find inconvenient and even to de-fund science. And this has not just been fretting around the periphery. I have heard these concerns raised by scientists who hold policymaking positions in societies and journals.

A recent article by Ed Yong talks about this concern in the present political climate.

In this environment, many are concerned that attempts to improve science could be judo-flipped into ways of decrying or defunding it. “It’s been on our minds since the first week of November,” says Stuart Buck, Vice President of Research Integrity at the Laura and John Arnold Foundation, which funds attempts to improve reproducibility.

The worry is that policy-makers might ask why so much money should be poured into science if so many studies are weak or wrong? Or why should studies be allowed into the policy-making process if they’re inaccessible to public scrutiny? At a recent conference on reproducibility run by the National Academies of Sciences, clinical epidemiologist Hilda Bastian says that she and other speakers were told to consider these dangers when preparing their talks.

One possible conclusion is that this means we should slow down science’s movement toward greater openness and reproducibility. As Yong writes, “Everyone I spoke to felt that this is the wrong approach.” But as I said, those voices are out there and many could take Yong’s article as reinforcing their position. So I think it bears elaboration why that would be the wrong approach.

Probably the least principled reason, but an entirely unavoidable practical one, is just that it would be impossible. The discussion cannot be contained. Notwithstanding some defenses of gatekeeping and critiques of science discourse on social media (where much of this discussion is happening), there is just no way to keep scientists from talking about these issues in the open.

And imagine for a moment that we nevertheless tried to contain the conversation. Would that be a good idea? Consider the “climategate” faux-scandal. Opponents of climate science cooked up an anti-transparency conspiracy out of a few emails that showed nothing of the sort. Now imagine if we actually did that – if we kept scientists from discussing science’s problems in the open. And imagine that getting out. That would be a PR disaster to dwarf any misinterpretation of open science (because the worst PR disasters are the ones based in reality).

But to me, the even more compelling consideration is that if we put science’s public image first, we are inverting our core values. The conversation around open and reproducible science cuts to fundamental questions about what science is – such as that scientific knowledge is verifiable, and that it belongs to everyone – and why science offers unique value to society. We should fully and fearlessly engage in those questions and in making our institutions and practices better. We can solve the PR problem after that. In the long run, the way to make the best possible case for science is to make science the best possible.

Rather than shying away from talking about openness and reproducibility, I believe it is more critical than ever that we all pull together to move science forward. Because if we don’t, others will make changes in our name that serve other agendas.

For example, Yong’s article describes a bill pending in Congress that would set impossibly high standards of evidence for the Environmental Protection Agency to base policy on. Those standards are wrapped in the rhetoric of open science. But as Michael Eisen says in the article, “It won’t produce regulations based on more open science. It’ll just produce fewer regulations.” This is almost certainly the intended effect.

As long as scientists – individually and collectively in our societies and journals – drag our heels on making needed reforms, there will be a vacuum that others will try to fill. Turn that around, and the better the scientific community does its job of addressing openness and transparency in the service of actually making science do what science is supposed to do – making it more open, more verifiable, more accessible to everyone – the better positioned we will be to rebut those kinds of efforts by saying, “Nope, we got this.”

Replicability in personality psychology, and the symbiosis between cumulative science and reproducible science

There is apparently an idea going around that personality psychologists are sitting on the sidelines having a moment of schadenfreude during the whole social psychology Replicability Crisis thing.

Not true.

The Association for Research in Personality conference just wrapped up in St. Louis. It was a great conference, with lots of terrific research. (Highlight: watching three of my students give kickass presentations.) And the ongoing scientific discussion about openness and reproducibility had a definite, noticeable effect on the program.

The most obvious influence was the (packed) opening session on reproducibility. First, Rich Lucas talked about the effects of JRP’s recent policy of requiring authors to explicitly talk about power and sample size decisions. The policy has had a noticeable impact on sample sizes of published papers, without major side effects like tilting toward college samples or cheap self-report measures.

Second, Simine Vazire talked about the particular challenges of addressing openness and replicability in personality psychology. A lot of the discussion in psychology has been driven by experimental psychologists, and Simine talked about what the general issues that cut across all of science look like when applied in particular to personality psychology. One cool recommendation she had (not just for personality psychologists) was to imagine that you had to include a “Most Damning Result” section in your paper, where you had to report the one result that looked worst for your hypothesis. How would that change your thinking?*

Third, David Condon talked about particular issues for early-career researchers, though really it was for anyone who wants to keep learning – he had a charming story of how he was inspired by seeing one of his big-name intellectual heroes give a major award address at a conference, then show up the next morning for an “Introduction to R” workshop. He talked a lot about tools and technology that we can use to help us do more open, reproducible science.

And finally, Dan Mroczek talked about research he has been doing with a large consortium to try to do reproducible research with existing longitudinal datasets. They have been using an integrated data analysis framework as a way of combining longitudinal datasets to test novel questions, and to look at issues like generalizability and reproducibility across existing data. Dan’s talk was a particularly good example of why we need broad participation in the replicability conversation. We all care about the same broad issues, but the particular solutions that experimental social psychologists identify aren’t going to work for everybody.

In addition to its obvious presence in the plenary session, reproducibility and openness seemed to suffuse the conference. As Rick Robins pointed out to me, there seemed to be a lot more people presenting null findings in a more open, frank way. And talk of which findings were replicated and which weren’t, people tempering conclusions from initial data, etc. was common and totally well received like it was a normal part of science. Imagine that.

One things that stuck out at me in particular was the relationship between reproducible science and cumulative science. Usually I think of the first helping the second; you need robust, reproducible findings as a foundation before you can either dig deeper into process or expand out in various ways. But in many ways, the conference reminded me that the reverse is true as well: cumulative science helps reproducibility.

When people are working on the same or related problems, using the same or related constructs and measures, etc. then it becomes much easier to do robust, reproducible science. In many ways structural models like the Big Five have helped personality psychology with that. For example, the integrated data analysis that Dan talked about requires you to have measures of the same constructs in every dataset. The Big Five provide a common coordinate system to map different trait measures onto, even if they weren’t originally conceptualized that way. Psychology needs more models like that in other domains – common coordinate systems of constructs and measures that help make sense of how different research programs fit together.

And Simine talked about (and has blogged about) the idea that we should collect fewer but better datasets, with more power and better but more labor-intensive methods. If we are open with our data, we can do something really well, and then combine or look across datasets better to take advantage of what other people do really well – but only if we are all working on the same things so that there is enough useful commonality across all those open datasets.

That means we need to move away from a career model of science where every researcher is supposed to have an effect, construct, or theory that is their own little domain that they’re king or queen of. Personality psychology used to be that way, but the Big Five has been a major counter to that, at least in the domain of traits. That kind of convergence isn’t problem-free — the model needs to evolve (Big Six, anyone?), which means that people need the freedom to work outside of it; and it can’t try to subsume things that are outside of its zone of relevance. Some people certainly won’t love it – there’s a certain satisfaction to being the World’s Leading Expert on X, even if X is some construct or process that only you and maybe your former students are studying. But that’s where other fields have gone, even going as far as expanding beyond the single-investigator lab model: Big Science is the norm in many parts of physics, genomics, and other fields. With the kinds of problems we are trying to solve in psychology – not just our reproducibility problems, but our substantive scientific ones — that may increasingly be a model for us as well.

 

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* Actually, I don’t think she was only imagining. Simine is the incoming editor at SPPS.** Give it a try, I bet she’ll desk-accept the first paper that does it, just on principle.

** And the main reason I now have footnotes in most of my blog posts.